The Economic Indices Iran

The Horizon of the Economic Indices until 2020 (iran)

The ministry of Industry iran, Mine and Trade have announced the future of some of the economic indices  of Iran until 2020 in a report based on international assessments. This report that is prepared based on the information published by Trading Economics institution have analyzed the indices concerning Iran in 10 areas, comprising of  “Market”, “Money”, “  GDP”, “Labor”, “Prices”, “ Consumers”, “ Trade”, “ Tax”, “Government” and “ Business”. In the following report, the horizon of “Trade” indices are evaluated in 6 sections and “Business” in 5 sections until 2020.

The ministry of Industry, Mine and Trade have announced the future of some of the economic indices  of Iran until 2020 in a report based on international assessments. This report that is prepared based on the information published by Trading Economics institution have analyzed the indices concerning Iran in 10 areas, comprising of  “Market”, “Money”, “  GDP”, “Labor”, “Prices”, “ Consumers”, “ Trade”, “ Tax”, “Government” and “ Business”. In the following report, the horizon of “Trade” indices are evaluated in 6 sections and “Business” in 5 sections until 2020.  The statistics in the area of trade indicate that in the fourth quarter of 2016, Iran have registered its trade surplus with the figure of 5387 million US Dollars and its average commercial balance during 1974 to 2016 have been equal to 7617 million US Dollars.

This is while, based on the forecasts, the commercial balance of Iran in the quarterly average of 2020 will reach to the figure of 4676 million US Dollars which indicate a decrease of commercial balance for this country. The horizon of country’s “exportation” however, will be bright in return for such decrease in Iran’s commercial balance. Based on the statistics, the export value in the fourth quarter of 2016 comparing to the third quarter of 2016 has increased from 19239 million US Dollars to 22148 million US Dollars  and its average figure within the years 1974 to 2016 is equal to 28404 million US Dollars. The export value of Iran in the quarterly average of 2020, however, is forecasted to be 21782 US Dollars  which will be less than the quarterly average figure for the years 1974 to 2016. Furthermore, based on the published statistics, the import value in the fourth quarter of 2016 comparing to the third quarter of 2016 has increased from 15112 million US Dollars to 16761 million US Dollars  and its average within the years 1974 to 2016 is equal to 20787 million US Dollars. The forecasts indicate that the importation sector will reach to the figure of 17202 for the quarterly average of 2020 which indicates an increase of the value of this sector. “Current Account Surplus” is another one of the indices in the trade area which its trend is noted in this report. The evaluations indicate that the current account surplus of Iran within the fourth quarter of 2016 is registered equal to 3225 million US Dollars  and its average within the years 1975 to 2016 is equal to 5778 million US Dollars.  This is while the horizon of this index until 2020 will be ascending and will reach to the figure of 4525 million US Dollars  . The trend of “Current Account Surplus to Gross Domestic Product”  until 2020 is also analyzed in this report. The statistics indicate that in 2016, the ratio of current account surplus to GDP is registered equal to 6.30% and its average within the years 1980 to 2016 is equal to 1.49%. It is forecasted that this index proceeds in an ascending manner until 2020 and reaches to the value of 6.5%.

The sixth index which was analyzed in the area of trade was “Crude Oil Production”  , which,  according to the statistics , its production in June 2017 is decreased to   3.880  million barrels from 3.893million barrels in May 2017. The evaluations, however, indicate that the production of crude oil will reach to 4.013 million barrels per day  for the quarterly average of 2020.

“Direct Foreign Investment” , which is the last analyzed  index , indicate that its figured has increased to 1262 million US Dollars on 2015 and its average amount within the years 1998 to 2015 is equal to 2277 million US Dollars.  The evaluations also indicate that the amount of direct foreign investment will have an ascending trend until the horizon of 2020.

Also, in the field of Business, 5 indices have been analyzed according to the statistics provided by the Ministry of Industry, Mine and Trade. Based on the published data, “ Industrial Production Growth” have increased 14.60% in the fourth quarter of 2016 comparing to the same period in 2015 and its average within the years 1975 to 2016  is equal to 5.94 %. This is while , according to the forecasts, this figure will increase to 10.23 until 2020. “ Monthly Production of Steel” has increased from 1.723 million tons May 2017 to 1.785 million tons in June 2017 and its average monthly production within the years 1991 to 2017 is equal  767.23 thousand tons. The production of steel, according to the forecasts, will have a jump and reach to 1.700 million tons by the horizon of 2020.  Another one of the indices in business sector which is analyzed by the Ministry is “ Ease of Business” . According to the last figures provided by the world bank , in comparison with 190 countries, Iran ranked 120  in 2016 concerning ease of business index which is a weaker position in comparison with the rank 117 in 2015 and the average rank  within the years 2008 to 2016 is equal to 136.  This is while, according to the forecasts, the descending trend will continue for the ease of business index in Iran and Iran will be ranked 129 in the horizon of 2020. “Perception of Corruption” index  is also one of the indices that was not much favorable according to the forecasts. In a report by Transparency International, the rank and score of Iran in terms of perception of corruption in 2016 was 131 ( out of 175) and 29 ( out of 100), respectively  and the average values within the years 2003 to 2016 were 124 and 26 , respectively. The forecasts indicate that the rank and score of Iran in terms of perception of corruption by the year 2020  will  reach  to 165 and 29, respectively. “Competitiveness” index, which is the last index analyzed in business sector, like the two past indices, does not have a favorable status for the horizon of 2020. According to the Global Competitiveness Report , the rank and score of Iran in 2016 was 76 (out of 138) and 4.12 out of 7 , respectively, and its average within the years 2011 to 2017 was 73 and 4.25, respectively . The forecasts indicate that the competitiveness index of Iran will reach 4.1 in the horizon of 2020 which will not have a significant difference with the score gained in 2016.

The World Bank Anticipated the Economic Growth of Iran to Reach 3.6% in the Current Year

According to the World Bank based on its last “ Iran Economy Outlook” report, a stronger growth is anticipated for Iran within 2018-2019 and mentioned that considering more political and economic stability after the reelection of Hassan Rouhani as the President, the growth of investment will be positive and accelerating. In the above referred report, GDP of Iran in 2017 is assessed to be 3.6% based on fixed market prices . Moreover, the economic growth of Iran is assessed to be 4% and 4.3% in 2018 and 2019, respectively. The report of the World Bank was published a few days after that International Monetary Fund asses GDP of Iran to be 3.5 % and 3.8% in the years 2017 and 23018, respectively. The International Monetary Fund has assessed the economic growth of Iran to be 4.1% in 2022.

Upon revocation of the sanctions, the economy of Iran has experienced a significant growth. Based on the statistics of the World Bank and the International Monetary Fund , Iran has experienced an unprecedented growth of 12.5% in 2016. This growth , for a major part, is due to the increased production and exportation of oil after revocation of the sanctions.

Now that the oil production of Iran reached back to the volume prior to the sanctions, however, the economy of Iran does not have much more space for growth in this sector. The World Bank expects Iran to experience growth rates of 4,4.1 and 4.1 in 2017,2018 and 2019, in the agriculture sector, respectively.  Also the industrial growth of Iran will be 2.3,3 and 3.4 percent within the same three years. The World bank assessed the growth of agricultural, industrial and service sectors of Iran to be 4.2, 24.7 and 3.7 percent for the past year.

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