Consumer Price Index returned to under 10%
The inflation of the semester at the bottom of 12 years
Donyay-e Eghtesad: The latest statistics published by the Central Bank indicate a new record in decrease of inflation. Based on the published statistics concerning the variations of consumer price index by the end of summer, the least semester inflation is recorded within the past 12 years for the same time interval. According to these statistics, the consumer price index has only increased 2% in the first half of the current year . The last time that the semester inflation rate was less than its current value in 2017 was in the first half of 2005. Limited increase of the consumer price index in September caused the inflation rate after three months to return to a single digit level.
Analyzing the statistics of the Central Bank indicate that the growth of consumer price index in the first half of the current year has reached to 2%. This increase is the minimum level comparing to the first semesters of the past 12 years. The last time, it was in 2005 that the growth of consumer price index in the first semester was 1.9% and thereby was less than the current figure. The other important news in the report of consumer price index of September, was the return of the average inflation rate in the last month of summer to the level of 9.9% which led the inflation rate of the first semester of 2017-2018 to be concluded with a single digit figure.
The trend of the Inflation Rate in the second half of 2017 -2018
Assuming this inflation trend, it seems that creditable international resources and even domestic institutions will revise their forecasts concerning the inflation rate. The authorities of the Central Bank had forecasted that of the price of each oil barrel remain at the level of 50 US Dollars, then the average inflation rate would reach to 11.9% by the end of the year. However, it seems that the forecasts of the Central Bank concerning the inflation rate of the end of the year will be revised upon release of the new statistics and to , at least, come under the level of 11%. According to the report of the International Monetary Fund in February 2017, it is forecasted that the average inflation rate of Iran ( Consumer Price Index) to reach 11.2% in 2017-2018 from 8.9% in 2016-2017. Furthermore, three scenarios can be assumed for the future of the second semester. In the optimistic scenario , if the monthly inflation rate moves as much as the average value of the first semester ( 0.3%), then the average inflation rate of 2017-2018 will be 8.3%. In a moderate scenario, if the monthly inflation rate is equal to the average second half of the previous year ( 0.9%), then the average inflation rate will be 9.7%. In a pessimistic scenario, however, if the average inflation rate of the coming months grows as much as the average rate for the past winter ( 1.4%) , then the inflation rate will reach to 10.4% until the end of the year. Therefore it does not seem that , even in the worst case, the inflation rate goes beyond the level of 11% , unless an unexpected event take place in the economy of Iran in the second half of the year.